Politics Watch

Here’s something you don’t hear every day, a Liberal Democrat defecting to the Conservative party. Not only is this an unusual switch—what with the Lib Dems consisting largely of rejects from other parties—but it gives the Tories their first council seat in Manchester for over a decade. Admittedly it’s only one councillor rather than a wave of defections, but given the strategic nature of Manchester and the need for the Tories to make inroads in the inner cities if they want to regain their lost status as a meaningful political force, I can imagine Conservative Central Office making a big song and dance about this news story.

Further reading

• Lib Dem councillor defects to Tories in Manchester

After a bitter leadership contest lasting two months and dogged by various revelations about the candidates, Sir Menzies Campbell has emerged as the new leader of the Liberal Democrats. The current Party President, Simon Hughes – initially thought to be one of the strongest contenders, was knocked out in the first round and his votes were transferred under the Single Transferable Vote system. The second round involved a close stand-off between the two remaining candidates, but in the end Campbell came out on top with 57% of the vote, beating economic affairs spokesman Chris Huhne to the post. Both defeated candidates pledged their immediate support to Campbell following the result.

Personally, I’m not sure exactly what to make of the whole leadership contest. If you’d asked me for my thoughts at the beginning, I would have probably put my money on Simon Hughes – as his role as Party President has already given him a lot of media coverage and he was generally well regarded within the party as far as I could tell. His admission that he misled people over his sexuality seems to have hurt his campaign more than I would otherwise have thought – I certainly didn’t expect him to come last out of three candidates. Huhne, on the other hand, did a lot better than I initially expected, especially for someone who only became an MP at the last general election. He’s certainly one to watch over the coming months, and could possibly use his success to bolster his chances for victory at the next leadership election, should Campbell decide to step down in the next four to five years.

It now remains to be seen whether Campbell can repair the damage done to the party over the last few months, although the recent by-election victory in Dunfermline and West Fife will help to an extent. Unless there any more scandals about to come out, the media will drift away now that the contest is over, although coverage hasn’t been anything like as much as it was for the equivalent Conservative leadership race before Christmas.

On a somewhat lighter note, it looks like it might be Gordon vs. Ming at the next general election (not really sure how Cameron fits into it, perhaps he can be Klytus?), although I’m sure Private Eye and other satirical publications have made that comment a dozen times already.

Media coverage

• Sir Menzies wins Lib Dem contest at BBC News – Politics
• Campbell wins Lib Dem leadership at Guardian Unlimited – Politics

Mark Oaten, who was at one point a contender for the position of leader of the Liberal Democrats, quit the front bench last night over allegations of his involvement with male prostitutes during the last six months. The announcement came after reporters from the tabloid News of the World confronted Oaten at his house with evidence of this area of his private life.

Assuming these allegations are true (I rarely automatically believe everything I read in the papers, especially not sensationalist rags like the News of the World), it is a major blow to the Liberal Democrats, and to Oaten personally. With Charles Kennedy recently admitting to having a drinking problem and the subsequent leadership contest that came about as a result of that announcement, the Lib Dems could only hope for a quick and untainted contest (or preferably the immediate appointment of one candidate without needing an election). Now they face not only the trials and tribulations of a leadership election, but also damaging stories about two of their most prominent members appearing in the national press.

What interests me most about this story though is that with the potential for defections as MPs attempt to distance themselves from the embarrassments surrounding the party, I think this is the best time for the Conservatives to make a serious return to the UK political scene. With a new leader who boasts a reasonable amount of clout and charisma without being seen as nasty, evil or a member of the Old Guard (Cameron wasn’t an MP when Thatcher was in power, which I suspect helps him to shake off the old traditions), the Tories have an excellent opportunity to steal some of the ground that the Lib Dems have taken in previous elections, and possibly even some of their MPs as well. It will certainly be intreresting to see how this all pans out in the days and weeks to come.

Media coverage

• Leading Lib Dem quits over sex scandal at Guardian Unlimited – Politics
• Oaten resigns over rent boy claim at BBC News – Politics
• Oaten scandal puts Lib Dems in crisis at Manchester Evening News

After several days of speculation, allegations (and later acceptance) of drink problems, murmerings of discontent within the party and finally an ultimatium of “you go or we will” from 21 MPs, Charles Kennedy has finally stood down from the position of leader of the Liberal Democrats.

I’m not very surprised or shocked to hear the news though, Kennedy’s time was limited the moment he came out and publically acknowledged a drinking problem. Whilst I applaud him for admitting to the problem and seeking help for it, the admission caused him to lose a lot of confidence from the MPs that he is supposed to lead and inspire. As soon as questions start to be raised about your leadership (in any area, but particularly politics) you have to either take direct and conclusive action to quash them and the perpetrators or stand down and let someone else take up the reigns of command. Kennedy failed to deal with the rumours over his drink problems quickly enough, and he has paid a heavy price for his lack of response.

Media coverage

• Kennedy resigns at Guardian Unlimited – Politics
• Embattled Kennedy quits as leader at BBC News – Politics
• Charles Kennedy resigns at Liberal Democrats official web site

Kennedy faces mass resignations via BBC News – Politics

Charles Kennedy came under further pressure to resign from his role as leader of the Liberal Democrats today as two of his front bench colleagues threatened to quit if he has not gone by Monday morning. Andrew George, spokesman for international development, and Norman Lamb, spokesman for trade and industry, have said their positions are “untenable” after speaking out against Kennedy’s continuing leadership of the party. It is expected that several other members of the Liberal Democrat frontbench will echo those sentiments in a statement due to be released later today.

It’s all starting to look rather bleak for the usually cheerful Charlie. At first there seemed to be a glimmer of hope as he announced a leadership election and no one else put their name forward as a candidate, with several senior MPs stating publically that they would not stand against Kennedy. Initially, it looked as if he would be able to win by default by being the only candidate in the election, but it now appears that whilst his frontbench colleagues might not be willing to contest the position of party leader with Kennedy in an election, they are prepared to force him to step down by threatening to resign en masse if he refuses to jump rather than being pushed.

Update: A statement is expected before 6pm tonight, probably at 17:45 GMT so it will be covered on all the national six o’clock news bulletins. If you want to be the first to hear it, you’re probably best tuning in to BBC News 24 or BBC Radio 4.

Media coverage

• Support for Kennedy ebbs at Guardian Unlimited – Politics

Coverage in other blogs

• The Yellow Revolution at Talk Politics
• In which my local MP makes it into the BBC news… at Burbling gently

In a dramatic statement issued a few minutes ago, Charles Kennedy admitted he has been taking treatment for alcohol-related problems in the past eighteen months and called a leadership election. He still intends to stand as a candidate for the top job, but personally I think his luck has run out and the Lib Dems will have a new leader before the local elections in May – assuming of course that they don’t make a pig’s ear of the whole business like the Conservatives did.

More Information

• Kennedy admits to drink problem via BBC News – Politics
• Kennedy calls snap election after admitting drink problem via Guardian Unlimited – Politics

Kennedy making personal statement via BBC News – Politics

Charles Kennedy has announced that he will be making a personal statement at the Liberal Democrat headquarters at 1745 GMT today, apparently to pre-empt media allegations about alcohol problems. The statement is not expected to be a resignation announcement, although given the lack of confidence expressed in his leadership by senior members of the party it wouldn’t surprise me if Kennedy did step down this evening. According to the BBC there is also a letter signed by eleven of the party’s spokespeople informing Kennedy that they are no longer confident in his leadership.

Given the potential importance of this announcement and the fact that there has been little political news of interest over the Christmas Parlimentary recess, I imagine it will broadcast on least one of the major terrestial television channels.

Lib Dems get ‘youngest’ president via UNaXcess

Oliver Smith, a member of Amber Valley Lib Dems in Derbyshire, has become the president of his local party association at the young age of twelve years. I’m somewhat surprised at this, as I thought there would be a minimum age to join a political party (not legally binding, but enforced by the parties themselves voluntarily), and it seems a bit strange to have someone who probably has a very limited knowledge of politics presiding over a local association. However, the president doesn’t really have many duties, most of the important roles are taken on by the association’s chairman (assuming a degree of similarity with the way local Conservative associations work), so it could just be an amusing publicity stunt more than anything else.

Kennedy vows to fight for his job via BBC News – Politics

Under pressure from several MPs to either call a vote of confidence or a full leadership election, Charles Kennedy has promised “direct and aggressive” leadership for the Liberal Democrats. Is this enough to stop senior figures from criticising his failure to fully utilise opportunities presented to the party, such as a weak Conservative party at the last general election, which could have been used to bolster the number of Lib Dem MPs beyond the 62 that were elected?

I think the problem for Kennedy at the moment is that he is starting to sound almost like Iain Duncan Smith with his “back me or sack me” attitude, which, as we are all well aware, did not do anything to bolster his leadership prospects. Kennedy is fortunate enough to have a party that is not quite as aggressive at undermining and back-stabbing its leaders as the Conservatives often are, but even so he cannot hold on to the top job forever if criticism is mounting about his leadership skills. Some members of the party have suggested waiting until the local elections and see how Kennedy performs then, although he may not have until then to impress the party sufficiently to remain as leader until May. He is also faced with an unbeat and rejuvenated Conservative party, who have historically done very well at local elections anyway, so if he does manage to survive until the local elections he will have to pull off something spectacular to impress his critics.

More Information

• Kennedy faces further criticism via BBC News – Politics
• Kennedy’s battle to survive via BBC News – Politics

Unless you have been hiding under a rock for the past month, or mentally tuning out any news stories containing the dreaded ‘P’ word, you will have noticed that the beloved Charles ‘Chat Show’ Kennedy has been troubled lately by questions of his leadership aboard the good ship Lib Dem. There have been a number of rumours about senior party members and MPs being unhappy with the way he has run things since the last election, and poor Charles has been running around like a headless chicken trying to reassure everyone that he’s still the right man to lead the party.

Personally, I think Kennedy is safe enough for the time being, due to a number of factors. First and foremost, the Liberal Democrats are generally amicable towards their leader, even if they don’t particularly like him, unlike Labour where there are undoubtably several senior figures just waiting for the right moment to make Blair walk the plank. Kennedy can also take comfort in the fact that his party is nowhere near as predatory as the Conservatives, who fight leadership elections almost as often as they do local and general elections.

Secondly, there aren’t that many people who are capable of mounting a serious and realistic challenge to Kennedy’s leadership. With only 62 MPs as potential successors, the list of candidates is already much shorter than that of the Conservatives or Labour. Again, this situation differs sharply from the Conservatives, who often have four or five candidates throwing their hats into the ring at every leadership election.

The Lib Dems also have little to gain by gunning for a change in leader. Kennedy is reasonably charismatic and seems generally well-liked by the public – a claim that neither Blair nor Howard could honestly make during the last general election campaigns. Sure, he’s probably not going to take the party into number 10 this time round, but then neither is anyone else. At the moment, all a leadership challenge, and the media frenzy that would inevitably surround it, would do is benefit the other two main parties, especially the Tories who would have an opportunity under Cameron to steal back some ground that the Lib Dems have encroached upon.

Assuming for a moment though that the Lib Dems really do want a change at the top, who could be the next leader? BBC News has an article on Lib Dem leadership options, but most of the candidates they present aren’t serious contenders. The only two who really hold enough support in the party to stand on their own are Simon Hughes and Sir Menzies Campbell, both of whom are, in my opinion, unlikely to mount a leadership challenge but would probably put themselves forward for the job if Kennedy stepped down of his own accord. Even then, Cambell is getting on a bit and at 64 might be considered to be to the Lib Dems what Michael Howard was to the Conservatives – a caretaker leader there to stop things falling apart whilst the party looks for a more long term leader.

There’s been a lot of media reporting on this possible ousting of Kennedy, so I’ve provided a number of links to stories from BBC News and Guardian Unlimited if you wish to read further around the subject.

More Information

• Kennedy gets support from deputy via BBC News – Politics
• How bad is it for Kennedy? via BBC News – Politics
• Kennedy pledges to stay as leader via BBC News – Politics
• Under-fire Kennedy meets his MPs via BBC News – Politics
• Kennedy feels the heat as colleagues urge him to go via Guardian Unlimited
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  Pledges of loyalty to Kennedy leave the cynics unimpressed via Guardian Unlimited
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  Kennedy threatens to sack frontbench critics via Guardian Unlimited